5-Year MTP & 11-Year Strategic Outlook
Forecasting GreenWind through 2041.
Driver-based 3-statement model running across 7 scenarios. Outputs are computed from the underlying assumptions (cascade losses, capture price, capex schedule) and the closing balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025.
Choose two scenarios to compare
Click a card to select it · click again to deselect · up to two scenarios compared side-by-side.
Primary
Comparison
Build your own scenario — live engine
Move a driver to compute · all others held at base
Recomputed live by the driver-based engine · sets the primary scenario to “Custom” (click another card to pick the comparison).
Revenue · FY 2030
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EBITDA · FY 2030
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Cumul. NI · 2026-2041
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Net Debt · EoY 2041
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ND / EBITDA · 2030
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Peak Net Debt · year
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16-year trajectory
Revenue, EBITDA, Net Debt — primary scenario vs comparison.
Financing strategy timeline
Equity calls + RCF utilization (primary scenario)
Equity calls
RCF drawn
5-Step Cascade · Net CF by site
Industry-standard energy yield assessment (IEC 61400-15-2): production decomposed through wake, technical, availability and curtailment losses.
Scenario comparison · key milestones
Primary scenario figures with delta vs comparison at strategic checkpoints.
| Metric | 2028 | 2030 | 2035 | 2041 |
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Strategic insights
⚠ Model limitations & caveats
- Consolidation: arithmetic sum without IC eliminations. Intercompany loans (~€550M in 2030) and management fees (~€2-3M/yr) inflate Total Assets and Liabilities equally; EBITDA, Net Income and Net Debt are not affected.
- Balance sheet articulation: A = L + E to the euro across all 7 scenarios and 16 years (enforced by an automated tie-out battery on every rebuild). Earlier versions carried a €24-39M timing gap inherited from the actuals' funding structure — resolved once sponsor equity calls replaced the legacy-debt patch.
- Working capital: AR/AP held flat from opening (no projected variation). Real-world WC would oscillate with revenue growth.
- Borrowing costs (IAS 23): interest on construction debt is capitalised into the asset (actuals and forecast, consistently) and depreciated from COD over the asset life. Group Net Income is therefore positive during the Jutland build (2026-27) and absorbs the full depreciation + debt-service charge from COD 2028 — the standard project-finance J-curve. Only directly attributable project debt is capitalised; RCF and corporate costs stay in the P&L.
- Tax: applied at full statutory rate per entity on positive PBT. No tax loss carry-forwards, no deferred tax mechanics, no group fiscal integration.